Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 25.959087 27.609839 29.375066 31.414331 33.719634 36.262389 39.303846
2025-11-16 23.011623 25.174679 27.611451 30.596566 34.208001 38.509940 44.142944
2025-11-23 21.842467 24.354138 27.286925 31.034182 35.805411 41.848281 50.396789
2025-11-30 20.731269 23.439641 26.687633 30.973968 36.658322 44.234995 55.711120
2025-12-07 19.721693 22.538617 25.987666 30.658115 37.062287 45.978168 60.336697
2025-12-14 18.471094 21.246147 24.687019 29.421091 36.050751 45.544949 61.481782
2025-12-21 17.916060 20.786471 24.406513 29.496626 36.837574 47.784621 67.332677
2025-12-28 17.518794 20.496847 24.315624 29.802918 37.957712 50.648405 74.919565
2026-01-04 16.821593 19.778834 23.608565 29.183973 37.623721 51.115995 78.114248
2026-01-11 16.597861 19.667458 23.704954 29.706599 39.067562 54.720462 88.627443
2026-01-18 16.298704 19.437467 23.619908 29.947950 40.077558 57.711910 98.905647
2026-01-25 15.756924 18.856770 23.016617 29.371952 39.693727 58.081364 103.022288
2026-02-01 15.037126 18.074744 22.187841 28.550601 39.080847 58.421860 108.743764
2026-02-08 14.381388 17.363070 21.437132 27.820051 38.591216 59.025042 116.026590
2026-02-15 14.116780 17.171065 21.408928 28.195147 40.045015 63.886944 140.176055
2026-02-22 13.755676 16.824445 21.131465 28.143506 40.716385 67.242720 163.179980
2026-03-01 13.366640 16.419715 20.743682 27.877082 40.946526 69.644900 185.856487
2026-03-08 12.799995 15.741398 19.917058 26.829766 39.567577 67.841771 186.101621
2026-03-15 12.557671 15.517554 19.761920 26.893873 40.366257 71.740639 224.877437
2026-03-22 12.380291 15.378730 19.726195 27.153608 41.585747 77.156292 291.461107
2026-03-29 12.025018 14.968595 19.255417 26.628400 41.121295 77.707236 321.458854
2026-04-05 11.918246 14.917153 19.335744 27.071965 42.761942 85.117494 479.204126
2026-04-12 11.762674 14.787154 19.285442 27.276480 43.911322 91.530329 745.583907